基于风险价值理论的多用户类弹性需求随机分配  

Stochastic traffic assignment with multiple user classes and elastic demand based on value at risk theory

作　　者：况爱武[1] 黄中祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第12期5139-5146,共8页Journal of Central South University:Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51208064;51078044);湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(10JJ6074);湖南省教育厅科研项目(11B004)

摘　　要：为合理刻画随机路网出行路径选择行为,基于均匀分布的路段容量分析降级路网中路段和路径出行时间的随机变化,依据时间价值将出行者划分为多个用户类,假定不同的用户类对出行时间可靠度有不同的需求,同时出行者能根据以往的出行经验获取路径出行时间的可变性并依据出行时间预算做出路径选择决策。以此为基础建立全局需求弹性下基于出行时间预算的多用户类随机交通分配变分不等式模型,设计求解模型的启发式算法。小型测试路网的数值分析结果表明:该模型能合理反映容量降级程度、出行时间可靠度需求及出行者感知误差对路径流量和全局需求的影响。In order to describe travelers＇ route choice behaviors in a stochastic road network more rationally, a stochastic traffic assignment model with multiple user classes and global elastic demands was presented. In the model, the link and route travel time distributions were analyzed assuming that link capacity follows a uniform distribution; the travelers were differentiated into several classes by their own value of time that follows a certain probability distribution. The model was established as a variational inequality problem based on the assumption that travelers acquire the variability of route travel times based on past experiences and make their route choice considering the travel time budget, which could be determined by the travel time reliability requirement of each user class. A heuristic solution algorithm for solving the model was given and some numerical studies on a simple test network were carried out to demonstrate the practicality of the model. The results show that the proposed model can reflect the impacts of the degradation degree of link capacity, the requirement of travel time reliability and the perception error of traveler on route traffic flow patterns and global demands.

关 键 词：随机路网 出行时间可靠性 风险价值 出行时间预算 多用户类 弹性需求 随机分配 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]