房价波动与宏观调控效应研究  

House Price Fluctuation and the Study of Macro-control Efficiency

作　　者：李进涛[1] 李白云[1] 黄芮[1] 郑飞[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学土建学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2014年第3期83-87,共5页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

基　　金：教育部人文社科研究项目(12YJC630092);校科研基金项目(BSQD12059)

摘　　要：通过构建时间序列模型,对我国商品房价格波动进行周期性分析,同时细分我国自1998年以来出台的房地产宏观调控政策并划分周期,将二者对比来研究宏观调控政策的调控效应。研究发现从1998年至今,我国房价变动周期房价与宏观调控周期数均为4,且宏观调控效应滞后期为一年,提前于房价变动一年发生。同时,我国近年来房价波动范围相比于1998年至2004年间房价波动范围明显缩小,说明我国宏观调控政策在一定程度上的确起到了平稳房价、抑制其飞速上涨势头的作用。By constructing a time series model , and the periodic analysis of the fluctuation of the house price and subdividing the macro-control policies since 1998 , we made a comparative study of the effect of the macro-con-trol policies .Study found that since 1998 , China ’ s housing prices changes and the macro-control cycle rates was 4 , and the lagged effects of the macro-control was one year , occurred one year ahead of changes in prices .Mean-while, the range of price fluctuations in recent years , compared to that between 1998-2004, was significantly re-duced , which indicated that China ’ s macro-control policies to some extent , indeed stabilized the prices , inhibited its rapid rise .

关 键 词：房价波动 时间序列模型 宏观调控效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]