无锡市碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析  

Decomposition Model and Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions in Wuxi

作　　者：沈子琦 唐德才[2] 仲凤霞[2] 李长顺[3] 江渊 

机构地区：[1]广州市气候与农业气象中心,广东广州511430 [2]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [3]福建省气象局气象服务中心,福建福州350001 [4]长治市气象局,山西长治046000

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2014年第1期6-10,共5页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：2010年度江苏高校哲学社会学科重点研究基地"气候变化与公共政策研究院"重大项目(S7910006001);江苏省"六大人才高峰"第七批高层次人才项目(S7410008001)资助

摘　　要：在计算无锡市2000~2011年二氧化碳排放量的基础上,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法,建立无锡市人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析能源结构、能源效率、经济发展情况等因素对无锡市人均碳排放的影响。结果显示经济发展对拉动无锡人均碳排放的贡献率呈指数增长趋势,相比之下,能源效率及能源结构对碳排放的抑制作用并不明显。据此提出开发可再生能源,转变能源消费结构,发展清洁煤技术,提高能源利用率等对策。A decomposition model of carbon emissions per capita in Wuxi is set up by adopting logarithmic mean weight Divisia method based on the carbon emissions from 2000 to 2011.The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure, energy efficiency and economic development on carbon emissions per capita in Wuxi. The results show that the contribution rate of economic development to carbon emissions per capita is exponential growth, however,the contribmion rate of energy structure and energy efficiency restraining to ead^on emissions per capita is not obviously. Therefore, comprehensive measures should be undertaken to reduce the carbon emissions, including exploring renewable energy, changing energy consumption structure, developing clean-coal technologies, improving energy utilization efficiency and so on.

关 键 词：碳排放 因素分解 能源效率 能源结构 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]