镇江市丹徒区2000—2010年生态承载力动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis on Ecological Carrying Capacity of Dantu District,Zhenjiang City in 2000-2010

作　　者：金霞[1,2,3] 香宝[2,3] 银山[1] 方广玲[2,3] 胡钰[2,3,4] 张立坤[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010022 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012 [3]国家环境保护区域生态过程与功能评估重点实验室,北京100012 [4]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《环境工程技术学报》2014年第3期256-262,共7页Journal of Environmental Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家环境保护公益性行业科研专项(201209032)

摘　　要：传统的生态足迹模型仅考虑了人类对资源的需求和土地的基本生产功能,忽视了土地生态系统的服务功能。利用生态系统服务功能理论改进了生态足迹模型,将生态系统服务功能价值当量因子引入到生态足迹模型均衡因子和产量因子的计算中,改进后的模型体现了生态系统功能的完整性;同时,以江苏省丹徒区统计年鉴数据为基础,应用改进模型计算其2000—2010年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、人均生态赤字,并对其万元GDP生态足迹进行了计算分析。结果表明,丹徒区人均生态足迹由2000年的6.870 2 hm2增至2010年的7.576 7 hm2,人均生态承载力由2000年的5.296 8 hm2减至2010年的4.998 3 hm2,存在生态赤字,且人均生态赤字逐年增大,由2000年的1.573 4 hm2增至2010年的2.578 3 hm2。区域发展处于不可持续状态。根据灰色GM(1,1)模型预测表明,2015年人均生态足迹为8.117 0 hm2,2020年将达到11.019 3 hm2;人均生态赤字在2015年扩大到4.671 4 hm2,2020年为7.567 5 hm2;万元GDP生态足迹2015年达到0.702 3 hm2,2020年为0.336 2 hm2。最后结合丹徒区实际情况,从生态承载力角度提出可持续发展对策。The traditional ecological footprint model only considers the demand of human to resources and the basic function of land and neglects the service function of land ecosystem. The ecosystem service function theory was referred to improve the ecological footprint model, and the value equivalent factor of ecosystem service function introduced in the calculation of equilibrium factor and yield factor in the model, so as to embody the integrity of the ecosystem. The improved model was used to calculate the ecological footprint per capita, the ecological carrying capacity per capita and the ecological deficit per capita of Dantu district from 2000 to 2010 based on its statistic data, and to analyse the ecological footprint per unit GDP. Results showed that the ecological footprint per capita of the district was increased from 6.870 2 hm2 in 2000 to 7.576 7 hm2 in 2010, the ecological carrying capacity per capita was decreased from 5.296 8 hm2 in 2000 to 4.998 3 hm2 in 2010. There existed ecological deficit and it increased from 1.573 4 hm2 in 2000 to 2.578 3 hm2 in 2010, which meant the regional developmental pattern was unsustainable. Besides, according to the GM（1,1） model, it was predicted that the ecological footprint per capita would expand to 8.117 0 hm2 in 2015 and 11.019 3 hm2 in 2020, the ecological deficit per capita would be 4.671 4 hm2 in 2015 and 7.567 5 hm2 in 2020, the ecological footprint per ten thousands Yuan GDP would be 0.702 3 hm2 in 2015 and 0.336 2 hm2 in 2020. Finally, the sustainable development measures were proposed from the viewpoint of ecological capacity and combined with the actual situation of Dantu district.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态系统服务功能 GM(1 1)模型 丹徒区 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] Q149[生物学—生态学]