基于优化的GM(1,1)模型在高速公路沉降预报中的应用  

The Application of The Optimized GM( 1,1) Model in Settlement Forecast of Express Highway

作　　者：张非非[1] 胡健[1] 佘兆宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏现代路桥有限责任公司,江苏南京210049

出　　处：《城市勘测》2014年第2期154-156,共3页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

摘　　要：GM(1,1)模型是最常见的灰色系统模型,也是预测理论体系中的一个重要分支,被广泛应用于各种建筑物、构造物的变形监测预报中。本文针对传统GM(1,1)模型中存在的问题,对模型中的初始值、背景值及时间响应函数进行优化,得到一个优化的GM(1,1)模型,并将其应用到高速公路的沉降预报。实例证实,优化的GM(1,1)模型的模拟和预报精度比传统GM(1,1)模型有显著提高,体现了该模型的优良性与适用性。GM（1,1） mode is the most common content of grey system theory .And it is also an important branch of forecasting theories .The model is used to forecast the deformation of building widely .According to the problems of the traditional GM（1,1） model,the initial value,background value and time response sequence were optimized firstly .The optimized GM（1,1） model was applied to the settlement forecast of express highway .Through the example,the results show that the optimized GM （1,1） model has a very high fitting and prediction precision than the traditional model .

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 初始值 背景值 时间响应函数 沉降预报 

分 类 号：TU196[建筑科学—建筑理论]