存在共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation of Complex Repairable System with Common Cause Failures

作　　者：阮渊鹏[1,2] 何桢[1] 张旭涛[1,3] 张驰[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学,天津300072 [2]杭州电子科技大学,杭州310018 [3]军事交通学院,天津300161

出　　处：《中国机械工程》2014年第10期1317-1324,共8页China Mechanical Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助重点项目(70931004);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(71225006)

摘　　要：鉴于传统方法在处理存在由部件选择性失效传播引起的共因失效的复杂可修系统可靠性与可用性评估问题时的缺陷,提出一种基于元胞自动机思想的蒙特卡洛模拟方法用以评估存在共因失效的复杂可修系统的可靠性。该方法首先将系统转化成二终端网络,然后基于问题的基本假设去模拟不同时刻下网络各边对应的状态值,利用元胞自动机并行搜索的优势判断每次模拟过程中不同时刻下网络的连通性,从而推导出计算系统可靠性、瞬时可用性、区间可用性、系统平均维修时间以及系统单位时间平均维修次数的具体算法。最后,通过算例对算法进行了说明。Because of the drawbacks of traditional algorithms when dealing with the problems of evaluating the reliability and availability of complex repairable system containing components with propagated failures having selective effect,a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm was presented based on the idea of cellular automata.The proposed algorithm converted the system into a two-terminal net-work,then,simulated the states of each arc of the network at different times based on basic assump-tions of problems.The algorithm ascertained the connectivity of the network at different times in every iteration using cellular automata which had the advantages of parallel searching.The specific algorithms of computing reliability,instantaneous availability,interval availability,mean downtime and mean maintenance frequency per unit time of the system were proposed.Finally,an example was given to illustrate how the algorithms were applied.

关 键 词：复杂可修系统 选择性失效传播 元胞自动机 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计] TH122[理学—数学]