探讨ARIMA模型在核电站外围环境放射性水平预测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA models in the forecast of peripheral environmental radioactivity level of nuclear power plants

作　　者：武云云[1] 刘建香[1] 崔宏星[1] 张庆召[1] 尚兵[1] 邓君[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心辐射防护与核安全医学所辐射防护与核应急中国疾病预防控制中心重点实验室,北京100088

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2014年第11期1941-1944,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的探讨时间序列ARIMA模型在环境放射性水平方面的应用,建立环境放射性水平的预测模型,并证明模型的适用性。方法利用1992-2005年秦山核电站外围环境放射性监测资料,采用SPSS 11.5软件拟合ARIMA模型。结果建立了秦山核电基地外围5 km范围的γ辐射剂量率ARIMA(1,2,O)、沉降物总βARIMA(2,2,0)、大气3H浓度ARIMA(1,1,0)模型,表明预测值和实际值基本一致。结论时间序列ARIMA模型可用于核电站环境放射性水平的动态分析和预测,为核电站外围环境影响评价和核事故放射性污染提供参考。Objective To explore the application of ARIMA model in environmental radioactivity, and establish prediction model for environmental radioactivity level and demonstrate the applicability of the model. Methods The external environmental radioactive monitoring data of the Qinshan nuclear power plant between 1992 and 2005 was used. SPSS 11.5 software was used for fitting ARI- MA model. Results The model ARIMA （1, 2, 0） for gamma radiation dose rate, ARIMA （2, 2, 0） for the sediment 13 and ARIMA （1, 1, 0） for atmospheric 3H concentration were established, and the predicted values were consistent with actual values. Conclusion Time series ARIMA model can be used for dynamic analysis and forecasting environmental radioactivity levels of nuclear power plant, in order to assess environmental impact of nuclear power plant, and provide reference for radiological pollution from nuclear accident.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 ARIMA模型 环境放射性水平 预测 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]