基于航班计划的空域交通流量实时预测模型  

A Model of Realtime Air Traffic Flow Forecast Based on Flight Plan

作　　者：卢飞[1] 张兆宁[1] 张东满[1] 刘碧莲 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室 [2]天津航空有限责任公司,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2014年第16期165-169,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71171190);民航科技基金项目(MHRD201018)资助

摘　　要：空中交通流量预测是空中交通管理的基础,实时的空中流量预测能够有效地保证空中交通有序顺畅的运行,对保证飞行安全和解决空中交通拥挤、减少航班延误有很大的帮助。为了准确预测空域内实时的交通流量,本文首先建立了空域内单航路有N个转弯点情况下的实时流量预测模型,然后将模型推广到了空域内有任意条航路的情况,最后进行了算例仿真。仿真结果证实了文中所建模型能够很好对空域内的实时流量进行预测,模型是可行和有效的。Air traffic flow forecast is the basic of air traffic flow management. Realtime air traffic flow forecast can effectively ensure the orderly operation of Air traffic and flight security, and also is very helpful for solving the crowded of air traffic and decreasing the delay of flight. In order to forecast realtime air traffic flow accurately, a model about only one route with N turning point in a region was established, and later this model was generalized to the situation of muhi-route in one region. Finally, an example was used to validate the correctness and feasibility of the model. Through the result of the example, the conclusion that the established model can forecast the reahime air traffic flow exactly can be found.

关 键 词：空中交通流量 流量预测 数学模型 仿真计算 

分 类 号：V355.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]