限速条件下铁路区间通过能力计算方法  

Capacity Determination Approach of Railway Section in Speed Restriction Conditions

作　　者：王莉[1,2] 秦勇[1] 徐杰[1] 贾利民[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学轨道交通控制与安全国家重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第6期880-886,936,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61074151);国家"十一五"科技支撑计划(2009BAG12A10);国家"八六三"高技术研究发展计划(2012AA112001)

摘　　要：深入分析限速条件下区间通过能力计算涉及的不确定因素.针对其动态性、模糊性、随机性和无后效性等特点,建立基于模糊马尔科夫链的区间通过能力计算方法.提出一种以模糊随机变量表达区间通过能力的解析形式,使得能力随突发事件影响程度变化的随机性和司机驾驶行为等因素的模糊性没有任何缺失.以京沪高铁作为实例分析,基于模糊马尔科夫链的计算方法反映了能力随事件变化的动态过程,更能容错各类因素及其不确定性,为决策者提供了丰富的选择方案,使得能力计算可兼顾激进的、保守的和相对折中的各种典型的运输组织策略,符合特殊条件下列车的实际运营环境.Uncertainties parameters of section carrying capacity calculation in speed restriction conditions are analyzed.The capacity calculation method based on Fuzzy Markov Chain is established according to its characteristics of dynamic,fuzziness,randomness and non-after-effect property.The section carrying capacity in emergency is expressed by fuzzy random variable,which remains the randomness of capacity changing with the impact of emergencies and the fuzziness of the driving behavior and other factors.The case study on Beijing-Shanghai Highspeed Line shows that the capacity calculation method based on Fuzzy Markov Chain reflects the capacity dynamic process in emergency.It has an excellent fault tolerance of a variety of factors and uncertainties and provides a wealth of options for policy-makers.The capacity calculation gives consideration to a variety of typical transport organization strategies,such as the jacobinical,the conservative or the compromised scheme,which is more coincident with the actual operation of the train in special conditions.

关 键 词：突发事件 区间通过能力 模糊马尔科夫链 模糊随机过程 

分 类 号：U292[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]