长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素分解与预测研究  

Decomposition Analysis of NO_x Emission Factors and Prediction Research in Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：杨春玉[1,2,3] 夏梦凡 董战峰 杨玉文[4] YANG Chunyu;XIA Mengfan;DONG Zhanfeng;YANG Yuwen(Changzhou Research Center on Social and Environmental Management,Changzhou Institute of Technology,Changzhou Jiangsu 213032,China;School of Social and Behavioral Sciences,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210032,China;Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;School of Economics and Management,Dalian Minzu University,Dalian Liaoning 116600,China)

机构地区：[1]常州工学院社会环境管理研究中心,江苏常州213032 [2]南京大学社会学院,江苏南京210032 [3]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012 [4]大连民族大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116600

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第12期158-165,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"区域资源经济空间代谢机理与代谢调控政策工具选择研究"(71373134);大气公益项目"国家大气污染物总量减排管理技术体系研究"(201209001);常州工学院校级科研基金重点项目"中国电力行业氮氧化物排放的区域特征与影响机制研究"(YN1523);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目"基于综合承载力的江苏省适度人口测度与空间差异分析"(2017SJB1800)

摘　　要：文章基于长三角地区各省份的能源平衡表,采用排放因子法,对长三角地区2000—2014年能源消费氮氧化物排放量进行了核算,并应用LMDI法对长三角地区历年氮氧化物排放量和氮氧化物排放强度及其变化的因素进行了时间序列分析。为了定量分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素,利用STIRPAT模型,分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量与人口、富裕度、技术进步和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归模拟后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量将分别发生3.12%、0.0068%、-0.45%、0.49%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了长三角地区未来能源消费氮氧化物排放量的发展趋势。Based on the energy balance table of the provinces (cities)in the Yangtze River Delta,this paper uses the emission factor method to calculate the nitrogen oxides emissions of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000to 2014,and apply the LMDI method to the Yangtze River Delta Nitrogen oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emission intensity and its changes in the factors of time series analysis.In order to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of nitrogen consumption in energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region,the STIRPAT model was used to analyze the energy consumption of nitrogen oxides in the Yangtze River Delta and the population,the wealth, technological progress and the level of urbanization.Through ridge regression simulation,it is found that every 1%change in population,per capita GDP,energy intensity and urbanization level,the emissions of nitrogen oxides from energy consunaption in the Yangtze River Delta will change by 3.12%,0.0068%,0.45%and 0.49%respectively.On the basis ofthe above research,the different development scenarios are set up,and the development trend of future nitrogen consumption of nitrogen in the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed.

关 键 词：氮氧化物排放 排放因子 LMDI法 STIRPAT模型 预测 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]