基于改进型重力模型的诱增交通量预测研究  

Research on the Forecast of Induced Traffic Volume based on Improved Gravity Model

作　　者：程俊龙 李娟[2] CHENG Jun-long;LI Juan(JSTI Group,Nanjing 210019,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 61003,China)

机构地区：[1]苏交科集团股份有限公司,南京市210019 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都市610031

出　　处：《公路》2019年第1期171-175,共5页Highway

摘　　要：诱增交通量作为交通量预测的重要组成部分,主要采用重力模型法进行计算分析,即在趋势出行的基础上,考虑时间费用成本的降低而产生新的交通出行,但对其因诱增经济而产生的额外出行考虑不足。在对地区诱增经济增长分析的基础上,基于经济、交通之间的内生关系,强化对诱增经济产生交通需求的考虑,提出对重力模型的改进模型,优化重力模型的计算结果。As an important part of traffic volume forecast,the gravity model method is used for the calculation and analysis of induced traffic volume frequently,which means thaton the basis of trend travel,because of the lower cost of time,the new traffic is generated.But there is an insufficient consideration of additional travel due to the lure of the economy.Based on the analysis of economic growth in the region and the endogenous relationship between economy and transportation,in this paper an improved model is proposed based on gravity model to optimize the calculation results of gravity model.

关 键 词：交通量预测 诱增交通量 诱增经济 趋势交通 重力模型 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]