基于船体结构总纵极限强度的可靠性分析  

Ultimate Longitudinal Strength Reliability Assessmentof a Corroded Ship Hull

作　　者：何福志[1] 万正权[1] 张伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国船舶科学研究中心,江苏无锡214082

出　　处：《船舶力学》2002年第2期27-45,共19页Journal of Ship Mechanics

摘　　要：本文基于船体结构总纵极限强度失效模式 ,采用改进的一阶二次矩法和蒙特卡洛法 ,建立了船体结构总纵极限强度时变可靠性评估方法和评估程序。具体分析了某大型油船在全寿期内由于海水腐蚀船体结构极限强度可靠性的变化情况 ,系列计算结果表明 :如果仅考虑海水腐蚀的影响 ,在某一使役期附近(本文算例结果为13～15年) ,船体结构因总纵极限强度不够而失效的可能性最大。因此 ,在使役期之前 ,船体结构的检测和维修是必要的。A time variant reliability assessment procedure is presented for ship hull structure based on the hull longitudinal ultimate strength, Advanced First-Order Second moment method and Monte-Carlo simulation method with variance reduction techniques. The tank case studies are conducted on the variation of reliability of ship hull girder subjected to corrosion in its whole life. Series numerical results show that because of the degradation of hull longitudinal ultimate strength due to corrosion, the probability of hull structural failure is higher after a certain period (say 13-15 years according to present case study). It is necessary to inspect and repair the damaged elements of hull structure after a certain period in its lifetime.

关 键 词：船体 总纵极限强度 可靠性分析 腐蚀 对偶变数 条件期望 结构设计 船舶 

分 类 号：U661.43[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] U663.2[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]