旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架  

Theoretical Framework of Drought Risk Assessment

作　　者：金菊良[1,2,3] 郦建强[4] 周玉良[1,2] 费振宇[1,2] 蒋尚明[5] 袁潇晨[3] 何君[6] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]北京理工大学能源与环境政策研究中心,北京100081 [4]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100011 [5]安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽省水利水资源重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [6]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第3期1-10,共10页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：水利部重大基建前期项目“全国干旱区划及旱灾风险评估研究”;国家自然科学基金项目(71273081,41171075,51109052);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201001043);中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金课题(LPM2011002)

摘　　要：旱灾风险评估是定量认识旱灾风险机理、科学防控旱灾风险的重要基础性研究,在旱灾风险管理理论与实践中具有重要意义。根据旱灾风险的形成机制,在旱灾风险评估基本概念分析的基础上,提出并系统地阐述了由旱灾致灾因子危险性、承灾体的灾损敏感性、暴露和抗旱能力组成的旱灾风险系统。在此系统结构基础上提出了旱灾风险评估方法论和旱灾风险评估理论模式,进而建立了由致灾因子危险性分析、承灾体脆弱性分析、旱灾损失风险分析、旱灾风险评价、旱灾风险决策分析方法组成的旱灾风险评估方法体系,以及由干旱频率与旱灾损失关系曲线图、干旱频率空间分布图、旱灾损失空间分布图、与旱灾风险有关的致灾因子危险性分布图等各种专题图、旱灾风险区划图组成的旱灾风险评估应用模式体系。由上述旱灾风险系统结构、旱灾风险评估方法论和理论模式、旱灾风险评估方法体系和应用模式体系组成旱灾风险评估的初步理论框架,该理论框架在其它自然灾害风险评估中具有参考应用价值。Drought risk assessment is one of the most important basic researches on the quantitative understanding of the mechanism of drought risk and scientific control of drought risk,which is of great significance in the theory and practice of drought risk management.According to the formation mechanism of drought risk,the drought risk system consisted of disaster hazard,damage sensitivity,drought exposure and drought resistance capacity is proposed and systematically expounded based on the analysis of the basic concepts of drought risk assessment.On the basis of the drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment are put forward.And then,the method system of drought risk assessment consisted of drought hazard analysis,drought vulnerability analysis,drought loss risk analysis,drought risk assessment,drought risk decision analysis is established.Meanwhile,the application mode system of drought risk assessment is established,which is consisted of all kinds of thematic maps related to drought risk such as drought frequency-drought loss diagram,spatial distribution maps of drought frequency,drought loss and drought hazard,as well as the hazard zoning map of drought risk.The preliminary theoretical framework of drought risk assessment,which is consisted of drought risk system,methodology and theoretical model of drought risk assessment,method system of drought risk assessment and its application mode system,has reference and application value in other natural disaster risk assessments.

关 键 词：旱灾风险评估 理论框架 旱灾风险系统 方法论 理论模式 应用模式 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]