居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响——基于动态存量—流量模型的实证研究  

Impact of Residential Land Supply Policy on Housing Market in Shanghai——An Empirical Study on the Basis of Dynamic Stock-flow Model

作　　者：唐旭君[1,2] 姚玲珍[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学金融管理学院,上海201620 [2]上海财经大学公共经济及管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2014年第8期8-12,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：上海市政府决策咨询研究热点课题(2013-GR-25)

摘　　要：文章运用住房市场存量—流量模型,动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给及住房价格的影响,并据此模拟不同居住用地供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现:政府新增居住用地供给对一定时期后的新建商品住房供给具有显著影响;居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格,但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示:增加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出,政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期,不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。The paper dynamically analyzes the impacts of residential land supply on new housing supply and housing prices by using the housing market stock-flow model, and simulates operational conditions of the housing market under different ideas of the residential land supply accordingly. It finds that, based on the empirical analysis of the data from Shanghai, the govern- ment＇ s increase of residential land supply has a significant impact on the supply of new housing after a certain period; the resi- dential land supply can affect the long-term housing prices, however it is difficult to have an impact on the current housing prices. The simulation results show that the increase of residential land supply can only play a limited role to stabilize housing prices. Based on the study, the paper proposes that the government＇ s residential land supply should focus on long-term, and should not make frequent adjustments on the basis of short-term housing market conditions

关 键 词：居住用地供给 住房价格 存量-流量模型 土地政策调控 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]