广西电网负荷特性分析与预测  

Load Characteristics Analysis and Forecasting in Guangxi Power Grid

作　　者：杨卓[1] 李波[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力工业勘察设计研究院,南宁530023

出　　处：《广西电力》2014年第4期5-10,共6页Guangxi Electric Power

摘　　要：为准确把握广西负荷特性及其发展趋势,满足广西经济社会发展的用电需求,需对广西电网负荷特性进行研究。通过全面调查、分析广西电网统调、非统调以及各行业用户历史数据,分别采用叠加、剔除、还原等方法对历史曲线进行处理,分析负荷特性参数变化发展的规律,并结合广西用电结构预测,分别采用历史年负荷曲线修改法和典型日负荷曲线修改法预测广西年负荷曲线和日负荷曲线。基于历史典型曲线和未来用电结构变化预测所得的广西全社会负荷特性参数,2015年基本维持不变,2020年呈下降趋势。负荷特性预测结果可为广西电网规划研究、运行分析提供参考。In order to grasp the load characteristic of Guangxi and its developing trend, and satisfy the electric power consumption needed by Guangxi economic and social development, the study of load characteristic of Guangxi power grid is needed. Parameters changing and developing rules of load characteristics are analyzed by completely investigating and analyzing history data of dispatched, undispatched and various industries customers, and by disposing history curves based on superposition, elimination and resumption methods. Based on the prediction of Guangxi electricity consumption structure, the annual load curve and daily load curve of Guangxi are predicted by using the change method of history annual load curve and the change method of typical daily load curve. Load characteristic parameters of whole Guangxi society obtained based on the history typical curve and the prediction of future change of electricity consumption structure will remain unchanged in 2015, and will have download trend in 2020. Prediction results of load characteristics can provide reference to planning study and operation analysis of Guangxi power grid.

关 键 词：电网 负荷特性 用电结构 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]