温州市房地产市场风险与金融市场风险的交叉传染机制研究  

Research on Cross Infection Mechanism of Real Estate Market Risk and Financial Market Risk in Wenzhou City

作　　者：杨刚[1,2] 谢永康[3] 姚玲珍[4] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433 [2]浙江农林大学经管系,浙江杭州311300 [3]上海财经大学研究生院,上海200433 [4]上海财经大学不动产研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《税务与经济》2014年第5期10-15,共6页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71173142);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(项目编号:14YJC790152);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(项目编号:2013M531157);浙江省社科联重点项目(项目编号:2013Z59);浙江农林大学人才项目(项目编号:2034020012);杭州市哲学社会科学规划常规性立项课题(项目编号:D14YJ08)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近年来温州房价持续下跌使房地产市场风险加剧;温州民间借贷崩盘和银行贷款不良率大幅攀升使金融风险凸显。温州市房地产市场与金融市场之间存在着风险交叉传染的问题,这种交叉传染主要有三种传导渠道,包括信贷传导渠道、利率传导渠道和互保联保的贷款担保渠道,而民间高利贷在风险传染中起到了推波助澜的作用,放大了风险的程度,加快了风险传播的速度。温州问题根源于制造业危机和金融制度缺陷,只有完善金融制度,促进金融业虚实并进助推制造业复苏并成功转型升级,才能解决目前温州市房地产金融困局,防止局部风险演化为全局性、系统性危机。Since house prices keep falling in Wenzhou, the risk of real estate market is aggravated. Wenzhou private lending collapse and a sharp rise in the rate of non-performing loan of banks will lead to financial crisis. There is cross infection between real estate market and financial market in Wenzhou through three major transmission channels ： credit transmission, interest rate transmission and mutual warranty and joint warranty of loan guarantee. The private credit also contributes to the risk of infection, increases the risk and accelerates the speed of risk transmission. The manufacturing crisis and financial system defects lead to Wenzhou predicament. In this paper several proposals have been put forward to solve the problem. First, it is vital to improve financial system. Second, it is still important to improve the real and virtual situation of financial industry. Third, it is also essential to facilitate the recovery of the manufacturing industry and to boost the transformation and upgrading of this industry. Thus, Wenzhou could prevent the local risk from evolving into global and systematic crisis.

关 键 词：温州困局 房地产金融风险 交叉传染机制 信贷 利率 民间借贷 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]