基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型的矿石价格预测对比研究  

The Comparative Research of Mine Price Forecast Based on the Gray System GM(1,1) Model and the Model of Verhulst

作　　者：王凯歌[1] 郑志琴[1] 杨啸铭[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2014年第5期81-86,共6页Journal of Gansu Sciences

摘　　要：提出矿石价格预测对于矿山企业的重要性,研究矿石价格走势,预测矿石价格.运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型对近十年银矿石年平均价格进行分析预测,分析对比预测结果,得出GM(1,1)比较适用于矿石价格预测,价格相符度比较高,预测结果能为矿山企业和政府提供相对可靠的价格信息来源.This paper put forward the importance of mine price forecast for the mining enterprises,research and predict the mine price trend.We analysis and forecast the annual average price of silver ore based on the gray system GM （1,1） model and the model of Verhulst,analysis of contrast predicted results,it is concluded that the GM（1,1） is suitable for ore price forecasting,price match degree is higher,predicted results provide reliable source of price information for the mining enterprises and the government.

关 键 词：矿石价格 GM(1 1)模型 VERHULST模型 价格预测 

分 类 号：U416.217[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]