高新技术园区预测指标体系的构建与选择  

Construction and Selection of Zhongguancun National Innovation Demonstration Park Forecast Index System

作　　者：刘刚[1] 杨颖梅[1] 马文涛[2] 王腾霄[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学,北京100192 [2]中关村管委会,北京100081

出　　处：《价值工程》2015年第3期1-5,共5页Value Engineering

基　　金：北京信息科技大学科研水平提高项目资助;项目编号:5211423500;北京知识管理研究基地基金号:71F1310913

摘　　要：本文首先根据传统的指标体系构建的方法建立两种指标体系,主要是主观筛选法和专家调查法。同时本文又提出了一种新的建立指标体系的方法—投入产出筛选法。投入产出筛选法建立的指标体系能够全面地反应预测目标整体结构。通过投入的指标来反映预测目标的成本,产出的指标可以反映出园区的收益,效率类指标则能反映出园区的盈利和营运能力,该指标体系同时还体现了高新技术行业预测的特点。本文最后使用层次分析法进行定性和定量相结合的研究方式选出最优的预测指标体系。Firstly, this paper based on the index system of the traditional building method to establish two kinds of index system, mainly is the subjective filtering method and expert investigation method. Secondly, this paper puts forward a new method of establishing the index system of input and output filter method. To set up the index system of input and output filter method is a comprehensive response prediction target integral structure. Through the input index to reflect the forecast target cost, output indicators can reflect earnings forecasts, and efficiency indexes can reflect the forecast target profit and operating ability. At the same time, the index system also reflects the characteristic of the high and new technology industry forecast. Finally, the paper uses the analytic hierarchy process which is the combination of qualitative and quantitative to select the optimal prediction index system.

关 键 词：预测 指标体系 高新技术行业 投入产出筛选法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]