基于水足迹理论的即墨市水资源可持续利用对策研究  

Study on Water Resource Sustainable Utilization Strategy in Jimo Based on Water Footprint Theory

作　　者：周玲玲[1] 王琳[1] 余静[2] 刘伟峰[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境科学与工程学院,山东青岛266100 [2]中国海洋大学海洋环境学院,山东青岛266100 [3]国家海洋局第一海洋研究所,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第11期95-100,共6页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家水专项资金项目(2008ZX07010-008-04)资助

摘　　要：为制定合理的水资源可持续利用对策以缓解即墨市水资源短缺现状,研究采用水足迹理论和方法核算即墨市2008—2011年的水足迹大小,并采用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5年的发展趋势。结果表明:研究期内即墨市水足迹呈上升趋势,年均增幅4.6%,在"惯性发展"情景下,到2016年水足迹较2011年增长25.7%,年均增幅为5.1%;农业是即墨市的用水大户,占总水足迹的90%以上;水足迹组成中,蓝水量所占比例最大,绿水量次之,绿水在农业生产中发挥了重要作用;各类农产品中牲畜产品耗水比例最大,粮食作物次之,林果业产品最小。在核算结果与分析的基础上,提出了6项即墨市水资源可持续利用对策。研究不仅体现了目前即墨市水资源的消耗类型、消耗量及发展趋势,为即墨市制定合理的水资源可持续利用对策提供一定科学依据和决策支持,而且丰富了水足迹核算的实践应用。The paper adopts the most advanced water footprint theory and method to compute the size of water footprint in Jimo from 2008 to 2011 with the aim to work out reasonable strategies to alleviate water resource shortage in Jimo. GM （1, 1） is used to predict the development trend in the next five years. The results of the present study indicate that the water footprint in Jimo is in a rising trend during the study period with an annual average increase of 4. 6%. According to the ＂Inertia development＂ situation, the water footprint in 2016 will have a 25.7% increase compared with that in 2011. The annual average increase will be 5.1%. Agricultural water takes most of the water resource which accounts for over 90% of total water footprint. In the composition of water footprint, the amount of blue water takes the most, followed by that of green water. Green water plays a significant role in agriculture pro- duction. In the agricultural products, the livestock consumes the most water, followed by grain crops, while the horticulture consumes the least. At last, the paper put forwards six strategies to help the wa- ter resource sustainable utilization based on the accounting results and analysis. The study not only reflects the consumption type, consumption amount and development trend of water resource in Jimo, but also provides scientific basis and policy support to some extent for the determination of reasonable water sustainable utilization strategies. The practical use of water footprint accounting can also be enriched in the study process.

关 键 词：水足迹理论 GM(1 1)模型 水资源可持续利用 

分 类 号：X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]