互通式立交分流选择行为概率模型研究  

Study on Probability Model of Diverging Selection Behavior at Interchange

作　　者：王云泽[1] 潘兵宏[1,2] 邵阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]长安大学特殊地区公路工程教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2014年第12期104-109,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAG13A03)

摘　　要：在系统分析高速公路互通式立交分流区驾驶人分流选择行为特征的基础上,讨论驾驶人是否接受分流行为的随机复杂性。综合考虑分流区主线车辆运行速度、匝道即时小时交通量和减速车道车头时距等因素的影响,选择特征变量确定效用函数。利用二项Logistic模型建立驾驶人分流选择行为概率模型,通过数据计算求解各特征变量系数,并根据t检验判断其影响程度,对模型进行优化。经研究表明:互通式立交分流选择行为受多种因素综合作用的影响;模型的建立为互通式立交减速车道几何设计、安全评价和交通控制管理提供了技术支持。Based on systematic analysis of the characteristics of drivers’ diverging choice behaviors at expressway interchange, the random complexity of whether the drivers’ accepting diverging behaviors is discussed. Comprehensively considering the influencing factors such as vehicle running speed in mainline of diverging area,ramp instant hourly traffic volume and time headway in deceleration lane,the utility function is determined by the selected characteristic variables. The drivers diverging choice behavior probability model is established using binomial logistic model,the characteristic variable coefficients are solved through data calculation,their influence degrees are judged according to test,and the model is optimized. The analysis result shows that interchange diverging choice behavior is affected by multiple factors comprehensively. The established model offered technical support for geometric design of deceleration lane,safety evaluation and traffic control management of interchange.

关 键 词：交通工程 分流选择行为 二项logistic模型 互通式立交 特征变量 

分 类 号：U412.352.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]