基于能量预测的光伏微网储能系统控制策略  

Control strategy of energy storage system based on energy forecast in micro-grid

作　　者：李大中[1] 杨育刚 李秀芬[2] 云峰[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学自动化系,河北保定071003 [2]内蒙古电力科学研究院,内蒙古呼和浩特010020

出　　处：《可再生能源》2014年第12期1771-1775,共5页Renewable Energy Resources

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(F2011502001)

摘　　要：以光伏微网储能系统为研究对象,提出一种融入光伏发电与负荷预测技术的储能系统模糊控制策略。该方案考虑了光伏输出功率随天气条件变化的随机性,建立了光伏短期功率预测最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)模型;考虑电力负荷影响因素的多样性与不确定性,基于灰色关联度(GRA)建立了电力负荷LS-SVM预测模型;考虑建立在偏远地区的微网系统,因分布式电源上网造成电能质量下降和电能传输过程的浪费,建立储能系统模糊控制策略,以确定电能最优分配及就地消纳,以保证系统能源利用效率。根据算例分析表明,该控制方案不仅可准确预测光伏微网能量,而且可提高储能系统运行效率,降低电能传输过程中线路损耗以及对电网电能质量的影响。In this paper,aiming at an energy storage system of photovoltaic（PV） mciro-grid, a fuzzy control strategy of energy storage system is proposed based on load and photovoltaic forecasting.Considering stochastic characteristics of photovoltaic output influenced by weather, a short-term PV forecasting least squares support machines（LS-SVM） model is established; Considering impacts of load, a LS-SVM model of load forecasting with GRA is established; Considering electrical power lost in long distance transmission caused by remote areas micro-grid system and poor power quality caused by distributed power connected to grid, an energy storage system fuzzy control strategy is established to optimize electrical power distribution and to use the PV power in local so as to achieve a high system efficiency. According to a numerical example,the fuzzy control strategy not only accurately predicts energy of PV micro-grid but also improves the operational efficiency of energy storage system and reduces influence on power quality and waste on power transfer.

关 键 词：光伏微网 发电预测 负荷预测 储能系统 模糊控制 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]