改进重力模型在铁路客运量预测中的应用  

Application of Improved Gravity Model in the Railway Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast

作　　者：李凯[1] 马驷[1] 许传粉[1] 汪颖[1] 褚岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031

出　　处：《石家庄铁道大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期94-97,103,共5页Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：对重力模型参数随时间变化的规律进行了研究,用正弦函数描述了重力模型参数的波动规律,改进了原有重力模型将参数标定为常数的缺陷,并通过数据拟合对实例进行了验证,结果表明该模型预测精度较高。This paper studies the law of gravity model parameters changing over time, using a sinusoidal function to describes the volatility of the gravity model parameters, improving the defects of original gravity model in which the parameters are calibrated as a constant, which is validated with instances through data fitting, and the results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is high.

关 键 词：重力模型 铁路运输 运量预测 

分 类 号：U29[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]