基于多维交互决策树模型的赴日旅游意愿研究  

Travel Intentions of Chinese Residents to Japan Based on A Multidimensional Interactive Decision Tree Model

作　　者：郭英之[1] 陈芸[1,2] 黄剑锋[1,3] 苏勇[4] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学旅游学系,上海200433 [2]江苏师范大学历史文化与旅游学院,江苏徐州221116 [3]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003 [4]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《旅游学刊》2015年第1期42-53,共12页Tourism Tribune

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"推动文化产业成为国民经济支柱性产业的战略层面及支撑体系研究"(12&ZD024);复旦大学"985三期"整体推进社会科学研究项目"新时期我国文化产业发展战略研究"(2012SHKXYB002);国家自然科学基金项目"基于旅游目的地的旅游客源忠诚度区域差异的实证研究"(71373054)/"基于旅游感知的旅游业发展对目地地社区居民生活质量影响的实证研究"(71073029);国家青年自然科学基金项目"‘景中村’空间生产的过程;效应与机制研究"(41401153)资助~~

摘　　要：文章对日本发生钓鱼岛政治风波等危机事件后国内居民赴日旅游意愿进行实证分析和研究。首先基于国内外文献,归纳旅游危机影响和多维交互决策树模型研究进展。基于对国内756名居民的一手调研数据,通过SPSS21.0软件,采用描述性统计和多维交互决策树模型分析,对国内居民赴日旅游感知差异进行总结,对钓鱼岛事件后不同年龄、不同婚姻状况、不同出游次数、不同教育程度群体赴日旅游感知意愿进行卡方自动交互检测,以区分多维交互尺度下不同群体赴日旅游意愿,为企业应对危机管理提供参考。The paper is an exploratory study on the travel intentions of mainland Chinese residents to Japan after Diaoyu Island political crisis. Due to the superior location and excellent service, Japan has become one of the most popular outbound tourism destinations for Mainland Chinese tourists in the past 10 years. However, since the complicated and subtle relations between China and Japan, the tourism industry of Japan is evidently sensitive and vulnerable to various crisis. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to investigate the decision tree model research as well as compare domestic and overseas researches at the very beginning of the study. On the basis of literature review and in-depth interview with tourism operators via a three rounds of pre-test and revision, a self-completion questionnaire was developed and used to measure domestic residents＇ attitude and travel intentions after the Diaoyu Is- land political crisis. Data was collected through surveys in cities of different sizes from both developed and undeveloped areas in eastern and western China, such as Shanghai and cities in Fujian, Guizhou, Hubei, Jiangsu and Sichuan provinces. All respondents have abilities to travel to Japan economically and potentials to travel. Altogether 800 questionnaires were distributed and 756 were returned. Descrip- tive analysis was used to analyze the travel intention characteristics of domestic residents to Japan uti- lizing SPSS21.0. Four vital realities were found from the analysis. First, seeking entertainment opportunities can be the main motivation for Chinese residents travelling to Japan. Second, the family-based tour ought to be considered as the main trip mode. Third, the primary channels for tourism information dissemination include travel agencies and tourism e-commercial websites. Fourth, four to six-day staying in Japan could be proved as a suitable choice for domestic residents who prefer travelling during the national holidays and paid vacations. The CHAID decision tree model is reasonably used to anal

关 键 词：国内居民 赴日出境旅游 决策树 旅游意愿 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] F224[经济管理—产业经济]