基于气象数据挖掘的广东省农业高温灾害预测研究  

Agricultural high temperature disaster monitoring based on meteorological data mining in Guangdong Province

作　　者：王丹妮[1,2] 包世泰[1] 王春林 唐力生 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学信息学院,广东广州510642 [2]中山大学新华学院,广东广州510520 [3]广东省气候与农业气象中心,广东广州510680

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报》2015年第2期106-112,共7页Journal of South China Agricultural University

基　　金：广东省科技计划项目(2011B020313016)

摘　　要：【目的】对广东省气象观测数据挖掘分析,以广东省农业气象灾害中的高温为例,预测可能存在的灾害及其等级.【方法】在缺乏灾害判定规则和历史灾情等先验知识的条件下,应用模糊C均值聚类算法(FCM)挖掘得出关键属性的聚类中心和隶属度矩阵,建立灾害等级判定规则,进而通过气象观测数据预测可能即将发生的农业气象灾害及其等级.通过误差反向传播(BP)神经网络算法对气象观测历史数据及同期发布的灾害等级数据进行学习,训练后的网络模型可以准确地揭示内在的灾害发生规律,进而通过气象观测数据精确地预测可能即将发生的农业气象灾害及其等级.【结果和结论】BP和FCM 2种数据挖掘方法在缺乏先验知识的条件下,均可以通过气象观测数据准确预测农业气象灾害,结果对比表明前者预测气象站点灾害等级的精度略优于后者.【Objective】To forecast agrometeorological disasters and their levels as an example of high temperature disaster in Guangdong Province. 【Method】Due to lack of disaster decision rule and historical disaster level data,high temperature disaster level rules were built using fuzzy clustering algorithm（ FCM） based on the meteorological data in the long term. Those rules were concluded from the cluster centers of the key attribute and membership degree matrix according to the maximum membership degree principle. Based on these rules,possible disasters and their levels were predicted by dynamic meteorological data. The back propagation network algorithm（ BP） in the absence of disa-ster decision rules was applied to study historical meteorological observation data and synchronous disaster level released by the meteorological bureau. The trained BP network models were accurate to discover the inner rules of disasters,so the BP network models were fit for predicting the possible disasters and their level through dynamic observation of data at many meteorological stations. 【Result and conclusion】Comparing the results of the two methods of data mining,the neural network is found slightly better than the fuzzy cluste-ring to predict the meteorological disaster level.

关 键 词：模糊聚类 BP神经网络 数据挖掘 高温灾害 灾害预测 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]