基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误与风险共因性研究  

Study on Common Causes of Flight Delays and Risks Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：薛漾 王建新[1] 厉耀威 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京211106

出　　处：《航空计算技术》2015年第1期48-51,共4页Aeronautical Computing Technique

基　　金：国家自然科学基金与民航总局基金联合资助项目(MHRD201125)

摘　　要：在民航运输生产中,航班延误时常发生,不仅打乱乘客的出行计划,影响航空公司的信誉,同时也会成为民航安全风险的隐患,而民航安全风险发生的同时也常常会导致航班延误。构建航班延误与安全风险的共因性指标体系来分析两者的共因性,并建立了相应的贝叶斯网络模型。研究结果为分析航班延误与安全分析的共因性关联强度提供参考,并在一定程度上对航班延误与安全风险进行预警,确定控制和消除航班延误隐患的措施,提高民航安全。In the operations of civil aviation transportation,flight delays often occur,which not only disturb the passengers＇ travel plans and affect the airlines＇ reputation,but also become the hidden troubles of the risk of civil aviation,and therisk of civil aviation often lead to flight delays. Tosetting upthe common causes indexes system of flight delays and risk in order to analyze the common causes,and develop the appropriate model of Bayesian network. The result of this research provides references for analyzing the common causes of flight delays andrisk. To some degree it has early warning functions in flight delays andrisk,and help to determine the measures to control and remove hidden dangers of flight delays and improve the security of civil aviation.

关 键 词：航班延误 安全风险 共因性 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]