基于SD的组团式城市交通生成预测理论方法研究  

Study on Prediction Theory of Clustered City Traffic Generation Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：张燕[1] 严凌[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《森林工程》2014年第5期122-127,共6页Forest Engineering

基　　金：上海市教委科研创新重点项目(12ZZ137)

摘　　要：多中心组团城市形态的发展模式已经成为国内外城市发展的重要趋势,本文着重分析组团式城市的交通特征,将系统动力学应用于组团式城市交通生成预测模拟,利用其擅长研究动态、非线性复杂系统的特点,针对目前组团式城市预测中主要采用的回归分析方法和时间序列模型存在的缺陷,本文建立的模型可以全面地考虑各种主要因素对组团式城市交通生成预测的影响,运行软件(VENSIM)来模拟、分析,将城市土地利用性质、城市组团中心数目、人口、经济发展四者的动态关系纳入其中,为组团式城市规模赋予一个特征值。较好地解决影响组团式城市交通生成预测所产生的误差问题。最后,选定浙江省永嘉县和假设的小规模的组团城市作为案例研究对象,通过实际调查得到的交通数据,运用创建的模型加以嵌套,得出结论,证明了模型的可行性。The developing mode of multicenter group urban form has become the important trend of domestic and foreign cities.This paper emphatically analyzes the traffic characteristics of urban depended. System dynamics methods was used for clustered city traffic creating prediction,which is suitable for analyzing the characteristics of dynamic and nonlinear complex system. In view of the clustered city traffic creating prediction depended mainly adopts the regression analysis method and the flaws of the time series model,this paper established the model which can fully consider various main factors＇ influence on urban traffic generation forecast depended,run software（ VENSIM） to simulate and analyze the usage of land utilization. The dynamic relationship among the number of clustered city centers,population,and economic development was applied. The characteristic value given depended on the size of the clustered city. The model can better solve the prediction error problem of clustered city traffic. Finally,the Yongjia county of Zhejiang province was used as an example,and the collected data was input into the best model so that the model＇s feasibility was proved.

关 键 词：系统动力学 组团式城市 交通生成预测 特征值 VENSIM 

分 类 号：S773[农业科学—森林工程] U121[农业科学—林学]