基于预期理论的风险决策的神经机制  

The Neural Mechanism of Risky Decision Making Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：罗寒冰[1] 徐富明[1] 李彬[1] 张慧[1] 李燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室,青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室,武汉430079

出　　处：《心理科学》2015年第2期341-348,共8页Journal of Psychological Science

摘　　要：预期理论基于对期望效用理论的批判与发展,提出了价值函数与权重函数,对以往风险决策研究中所发现的现象进行了很好的预测与解释。预期理论的核心概念包括参照依赖、损失规避与权重函数。基于预期理论的一些决策偏差包括框架效应、禀赋效应和默认偏差也部分揭示了与人们风险决策有关的脑区。近年来,通过采用功能性核磁共振等脑成像手段对预期理论的一些核心成分进行的研究表明,涉及到人们风险决策的脑区主要有前额叶、纹状体、脑岛与杏仁核。未来的研究可以从预期理论的产生根源、个体发展以及遗传基因等角度进行进一步的探讨。Based on the criticism and development of expected utility theory, value function and weight function were proposed by prospect theory, providing a good prediction and explanation of the phenomena found in previous studies of risky decision-making. First of all, prospect theory proposes a value function over gains and losses relative to a reference point. According to prospect theory, the status quo generally serves as the reference point distinguishing losses from gains. So the function is concave for gains and convex for losses. Secondly, the value function of prospect theory is steeper for losses than for gains, which is a property known as loss aversion. People typically require more compensation to give up possessions than the amount that they paid to obtain it in the first place. Finally, according to prospect theory, the value of an outcome is weighted not by its probability, but by such a decision scheme in which moderate to high probabilities are underweighted and low probabilities are overweighed. In addition, some decision-making biases phenomena, such as framing effect, endowment effect and default bias also help to reveal the neural basis of prospect theory. The field of neuroeconomics provides a rapidly increasing amount of data regarding the phenomena that lie at the heart of prospect theory. Recently, studies on neuroimaging, especially functional magnetic resonance imaging, have showed that prefrontal cortex, striatum, insula and amygdala are the four main brain regions that relate to prospect theory. Specifically, studies on reference-dependence showed that prefrontal cortex （PFC）, including orbitofrontal cortex （OFC） and medial prefrontal cortex （mPFC）, and ventral striatum （vStr） may be involved in reference-dependent processing. Some researchers argue that reference-dependence might be a general concept that includes many factors, including choice history, and may thus be dynamic. Therefore, PFC and vStr may represent different types of reference-dependence. Studies on loss a

关 键 词：预期理论 参照依赖 损失规避 权重函数 

分 类 号：B842[哲学宗教—基础心理学]