基于灰色马尔可夫链模型的水质预测  

Water Quality Prediction Based on Gray-Markov Model

作　　者：刘冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省环境监测实验中心,辽宁沈阳110161

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2015年第11期259-260,262,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：GM(1,1)模型由于其原始数据的起伏性和无序性,预测结果不是很理想。针对这一情况,采用马尔可夫链模型对GM(1,1)模型结果进行优化,并应用该模型对太子河干流化学需氧量进行预测。结果表明,应用灰色马尔可夫链模型进行预测,化学需氧量成逐年下降的趋势,2012年实际化学需氧量为11.4 mg/L,结果在(9.97,12.59)的预测区间,说明应用灰色马尔可夫链对水质进行预测是可行的。The GM （ 1, 1 ） model because of its ups and downs and disordered raw data, forecasting results is not very ideal. To solve this situation, the article uses the markov chain model to optimize the result of the GM ）（ 1, 1 ） model, and applies this model to forecast the COD of Taizi River. The results show that application of gray markov chain model to forecast the COD, the COD shows a downward trend year by year, in 2012, COD was 11.4 rag/L, the result belongs to （9.97, 12.59）. So using the grey markov chain to predicate the water quality is feasible.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 马尔可夫链模型 水质预测 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学] X8[环境科学与工程—环境工程]