中国主要水果消费模型的建立  

Model on China's major fruit consumption

作　　者：张宇[1] 黄芬芬[1] 燕敏[1] 张鸽[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北师范学院数学与统计学院,湖北黄石435002

出　　处：《湖北师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2015年第2期62-67,共6页Journal of Hubei Normal University(Natural Science)

摘　　要：首先在36种水果中,采用主成分分析的方法选取了菠萝、苹果、橙子、荔枝、木瓜、李子、芒果和樱桃8种主要水果。然后用线性回归和时间序列的方法建立两类模型:第一种,以主要水果的消费量作为因变量,时间作为自变量,建立线性回归模型,经过模型检验、回归系数检验和残差的正态性检验等说明所建的模型是合理的;第二种,用非平稳时间序列的方法建立了时间关于消费量之间的ARIMA(1,1,0)模型,并检验了所建的模型的合理性。另外,得到了主要水果的消费量随着时间而逐年增长的发展趋势。In this paper, firstly we use principal component analysis method to select pineapple, apples,oranges, litchi, pa-paya, plums, mango and cherry eight kinds of major fruit from thirty six kinds of fruit.And then we establish two models with linear regression and time series methods .In the first place, we select the consumption of the main fruit as the dependent var-iable and time as the independent variable, and establish linear regression model.Through the model test, regression coeffi-cient test and residual normality test , it is shown that the model is reasonable.In the second place, using the method of non-stationary time series ,we establish ARIMA （1,1,0） model on the consumption and time , and test the rationality of the model.In addition, we obtain the trend that the consumption of major fruit has been growing with time.

关 键 词：主成分分析 主要水果 消费 线性回归模型 时间序列模型 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]