基于比例风险模型的地铁车门可靠性评估方法研究  

Assessment Method of Metro Door Fault Criticality Based on Proportional Hazard Model

作　　者：何广坚[1] 任金宝[2] 邢宗义[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州市地下铁道总公司,广东广州510030 [2]南京理工大学,江苏南京210094

出　　处：《机械制造与自动化》2015年第3期187-190,共4页Machine Building & Automation

摘　　要：车门系统作为地铁车辆的关键系统,对车辆的安全性、舒适性有着重要的影响,故引入比例风险模型对车门系统的可靠性进行评估。对车门系统的历史检修数据进行筛选得到协变量因子;应用主成分分析法对协变量进行处理得到协变量矩阵;采用极大似然估计法和牛顿迭代法求取比例风险模型参数估计值;得到车门系统的比例风险模型。通过比例风险模型计算车门系统可靠度下降为0.95时,车门寿命为170天。比例风险模型所得结果与Weibull分布模型所得结果比较,可知比例风险模型所得结果更符合现场工程师经验。The reliability of Metro Door is directly related to the safety of passengers. The proportional hazard model （PHM） is proposed to evaluate metro door fault criticality, the proportional hazard model is introduced to the description of the relations between reliability and covariates, relevant historical failure data of metro door system, is sifted to obtain the function of the covariates of the model, the log-likelihood function is used to estimate the parameters in the PHM and the Newton-Raphson method is applied to cal- culating the parameters from the likelihood function, the reliability model is applied to evaluating the lifetime of the metro door. when R is 0.95, the reliable lifetime t0.95 is 170. Compared with the Weibull distribution, the PHM is more adaptive and robust and the impact of many covariates is considered simultaneously.

关 键 词：车门可靠性 比例风险模型 似然估计 牛顿迭代 

分 类 号：U231[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]