安徽省耕地压力指数时空分布特征及趋势预测  

An analysis of thetemporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pressure index of cultivated land and its trend prediction of Anhui Province

作　　者：徐京京[1,2] 黄建武[1,2] 李丹[3] 揭毅[1,2] 伍晓阳[1,2] 兰明灿 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,武汉430079 [2]华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院,武汉430079 [3]南京师范大学教师教育学院,南京210046

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2015年第4期615-622,共8页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(ccnu15ZD001)

摘　　要：以安徽省1990年-2010年统计资料为基础,分析了耕地资源、人数和粮食产量动态变化,根据最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型计算了安徽省及其17个地市耕地压力指数,在此基础上分析其时空特征,采用GM（1,1）模型对2011年-2020年耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行预测.结果表明：耕地面积和人均耕地面积总体上呈减少趋势,伴随着粮食总量、单产在波动中上升,人均粮食产量也在波动中上升;1990年-2010年,全省耕地压力指数呈现一个倒“W”型,1991年耕地压力显著,1992年-1997年,耕地压力指数在波动中下降,1997年-2003年,在波动上升,2003年上升到1.109 5,之后呈下降趋势;总体上,1990年-2010间,皖北地级市耕地压力在降低,中南部地级市呈现增大的趋势,2000年耕地压力达到最大,之后耕地压力有所下降;近20年,马鞍山、芜湖、铜陵、黄山以及安庆耕地压力指数均大于1,耕地承受着较长时间的压力,而合肥和池州耕地压力在不断加大,在2010年耕地压力指数均大于1,耕地压力显著;通过预测分析,在2011年-2020年,全省耕地面积和人均耕地面积均会持续下降,而耕地压力在上升,2020年耕地压力明显,耕地压力指数达到1.041 16,基于此,提出了一些减轻耕地压力的建议.全面分析安徽省耕地压力指数时空分布特征,这对于保障粮食安全、减轻耕地压力以及制定保护耕地资源的政策提供了参考.Firstly, this paper analyzes the changes of the cultivated land resources, population and grain production with the statistical data from 1990 to 2010 in Anhui province. Then pressure index of cultivated land of Anhui and 17 cities is calculated using minimum area of cultivated land per capita and pressure index of cultivated land model. Finally the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the pressure index of cultivated land is studied and the cultivated land area and pressure index of cultivated land is predicted using GM （1, 1） model. The results show that, the arable land and per capita cultivated land area are decreasing on the whole. Per capita grain output rose in volatility as the per unit area yield and grain total rising in volatility. The change of cultivated land pressure index was similar to an inverted ＂W＂ type from 1990 to 2010. Cultirated land pressure was significantly high in 1991, while decreased in fluctuation from 1992 to1997,and unsteadily rose from 1997 to 2003. After reaching to 1. 109 5 in 2003, the cultivated land pressure index started declining. Overall, cultivated land pressure of cities decreased in northwest while increased central and southern from 1990 to 2010. After achieving the maximum in 2000, in the cultivated land pressure decreased. In Ma＇anshan, Wuhu, Tongling, Huangshan and Anqing, the cultivated land pressure index was greater than 1, suggesting that the arable land has been under a shrinking pressure for a long time, Hefei and Chizhou＇s cultivated land pressure is increasing with the cultivated land pressure index greater than 1 in 2010, indicating that the cultivated land pressure was significantly high. Through the forecast, the cultivated land area and per capita arable land area will continue to fall, and cultivated land pressure will be on the rise in the 2011-2020. Besides, pressure index of cultivated land will reach 1. 04116 in 2020, and the cultivated land pressure is obvious. In order to reduce cultivated land pressure, some suggestion

关 键 词：耕地压力指数 耕地压力 时空分布特征 GM(1 1)模型 安徽省 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]