马尔可夫预测模型在伤寒和副伤寒预测中的应用  

Application of Markov prediction model in the prediction of typhoid and paratyphoid

作　　者：田灵芝[1] 符顺明 余爱[1] 周格[1] 齐彩霞[1] 周启元[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南文理学院数学与计算科学学院,湖南常德415000

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2015年第7期30-32,共3页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：湖南文理学院大学生创新课题资助项目

摘　　要：对于传染病有效的防预与控制,一直以来都是卫生部门管理的重点.建立了对全国伤寒和副伤寒传染病进行预测的马尔可夫链预测模型.该模型能准确预测出该传染病年发病率.在大量已知数据的前提下,该模型有较高的准确性和可信度,且具有很强的推广价值.For effective prevention and control of infectious diseases, has always been the focus of the health sector management. Established the forecast model of markov chain of typhoid and paratyphoid infectious diseases in the country. This model can accurately predict the annual incidence of infectious diseases. On the premise of a large number of known data, the model has higher accuracy and credibility, and has great promotion value.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 传染病预测 状态转移概率矩阵 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]