河南省生态环境与经济增长关系的动态计量分析  

A dynamic econometric analysis on relationships between ecoenvironmental changes and economic growth in Henan Province

作　　者：范慧平[1] 孟天醒 文倩[1] 宋文博[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学资源与环境学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2015年第4期511-516,523,共7页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901120)

摘　　要：采用BP神经网络、平稳性和协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解模型,对河南省1993—2012年生态环境与经济增长的内在关系进行动态计量分析。结果表明:1993—2012年河南省生态环境水平整体上升、与经济增长互为Granger因果关系;长期看经济增长对提升生态环境具有显著正向效应,短期则造成生态环境恶化,经济增长对生态环境的影响能力从第二期起逐步提升;短期内生态环境的改善会牺牲一定的经济利益,长期则是经济可持续发展的保障。Based on the data from 1993 to 2012 in Henan province, a dynamic econometric analysis was conducted on the relationship between coo-environmental changes and economic growth by using BP neural network, stationary and co-integration tests, Granger causality test, impulse response function, and variance decomposition model. The result shows that ： there is an overall increase of ecologi- cal environment level which is granger causality of economic growth. In the long term, there is a signif- icant positive effect on ecological environment coming from economic growth, but negative in the short term. Influences on ecological environment by economic growth improved gradually since the second period. In the short term, the improvement of ecological environment sacrificed certain economic bene- fits, but would be guarantee of economic sustainable development in the long run. cultivated land pro- tection cultivated land protection.

关 键 词：生态环境 经济增长 BP神经网络 动态计量分析 河南 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]