北京电网网格化空间负荷预测方法  

Grid-based Spatial Load Forecasting Method in Beijing Power Grid

作　　者：安建强[1] 马林峰[1] 纪斌[1] 李晖[1] 李强[1] 王世勇[1] 李雪男[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网北京市电力公司,北京100031 [2]北京电力经济技术研究院,北京100055

出　　处：《供用电》2015年第8期58-63,共6页Distribution & Utilization

摘　　要：电网负荷预测是电网规划的基础,负荷预测的准确性直接关系到电网规划质量与效果。相比于其他负荷预测方法,空间负荷预测法不仅可在时间上预测未来负荷,而且还可预测未来负荷的空间分布信息,为电网规划提供科学依据。网格化空间负荷预测方法以区域控制性规划为基础,以用地功能最小化为原则,将北京全市建设用地细分为44016个网格,并依据大样本实测数据建立的各类负荷指标模型,同时结合地块开发程度,进行差异化区域用电负荷预测,可准确预测出规划目标年饱和负荷大小及其空间布局,为电网规划提供科学的数据支撑。Load forecasting is the foundation of the power grid planning, and the accuracy of load forecasting is directly related to the quality and effect of power grid planning. Compared with other methods of load forecasting, the spatial load forecasting method not only can predict the future load on time, but also can predict the spatial distribution information of the future load, providing scientific basis for the power grid planning. On the basis of detailed regional control planning, with the principle of minimizing the land use function, Beijing＇ s construction land are divided into forty-four thousand and sixteen grids. Combining with different land development degrees, differentiated regional power load forecasting is achieved based on various load index models which are established on large sample measured data. The proposed method can accurately predict saturated load size and its spatial distribution of the target planning year. It can provide scientific data support for power grid planning.

关 键 词：电网规划 负荷预测 空间负荷预测 网格化 负荷建模 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]