基于灰色预测模型的水资源可持续利用研究——以常州武进区为例  

Studies on Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources Based on Grey Prediction Model——A Case Study on Changzhou Wujin District

作　　者：朱丽[1] 刘珊珊[1] 昌诚 

机构地区：[1]山东建筑大学市政与环境工程学院,山东济南250101

出　　处：《环境科学与管理》2015年第9期55-58,共4页Environmental Science and Management

摘　　要：基于常州武进区2008年-2013年用水量,建立灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并利用该模型预测了武进区2015年-2020年的用水量。根据武进区供水能力的现状,并结合预测结果,对武进区2015年-2020年日用水量进行供需平衡分析,以发现水资源供需缺口,然后提出解决对策,缓解供需矛盾。结果表明2017年武进区开始出现供水不足现象,缺口为6.8万m3/d。为实现水资源可持续利用,提出新增滆湖供水水量,落实工业、农业和社会生活的节水措施,提高污水资源化率的三项策略。Gray forecasting GM （ 1,1 ） model based on water consumption of Wujin District in 2008 - 2013 is established. The model is used for predicting the amount of water in Wujin District during 2015 - 2020. According to the current situation of water supply capacity in Wujin District and the forecast results, balance between supply and demand of water resources of Wujin District in 2015 -2020 is analyzed. This paper aims to find the water supply and demand gap, and then proposes to ease the contradiction between supply and demand. The results show that in 2017, Wujin District begins to record a scant supply of wa- ter and the gap is 6. 8 x 104 m3/d. To ensure sustainable utilization of water resources, three strategies are put forward, including increasing Gehu Lake water supply ; carrying out water saving measures of industrial, agriculture and social life ; improving sewage recycling rate.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 灰色预测 用水量 水资源可持续利用 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]