基于航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型  

Arrived Passenger Model in Single Flight Based on the Time of Departure

作　　者：邢志伟[1] 冯文星[1,2] 罗谦 李学哲[1,2] 白楠[1,2] 潘野 李定亮 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学航空自动化学院天津东丽区300300 [2]中国民航局第二研究所成都610041

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报》2015年第5期719-724,共6页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2012BAG04B02);国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合项目(U1233118,U1333122);中央高校基金(3122014P003)

摘　　要：通过对单航班离港旅客在航站楼聚集行为的动力学分析,证明了旅客的到达聚集行为在群体层面受截止时间影响服从重尾分布,并且存在混合分布特性;揭示了航班截止时间的变化对旅客行为重尾特性的影响规律。在此基础之上基于对数正态分布与回归分析建立了航班离港时刻主导的单航班离港旅客聚集模型,并通过仿真验证证明了模型拟合度达到80%以上,具有工程推广价值。The arrival aggregation behavior of a single flight departing passengers at the group level affected by the deadline is proved to obey heavy-tailed distribution with mixed distribution characteristics through the dynamics analysis about the passengers＇ behavior at Terminal. The influence of the changes of flight deadline on the heavy tail characteristics of passengers＇ behavior is studied. On this basis, the arrived passenger model in single flight based on the time of departure（TD-SFAPM） is built, on account of the log-normal distribution and the regression analysis. The accuracy of the model is proved to be more than 80 percent by simulation.

关 键 词：群体行为 重尾分布 人类动力学 对数正态分布 模型 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程]