考虑交通量随机波动的随机用户均衡配流模型  

Stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment model consisting fluctuations in traffic flows

作　　者：卫翀 邵春福[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]首都世界城市顺畅交通协同创新中心,北京100124

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2015年第5期1408-1413,共6页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：“973”国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB725403);国家自然科学基金项目(51408035);中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(2013JBM008)

摘　　要：研究了随机用户均衡路网中交通量的随机波动现象。基于随机效用理论,运用贝叶斯定理构建了可以反映随机用户均衡路网中路径路段交通量概率分布的交通配流模型,避免了交通量的随机性在交通配流模型中被忽略的问题。侧重分析了路网中驾驶员的随机路径选择行为以及道路通行能力的不确定性对交通量波动的影响。设计了一种马科夫链-蒙特卡洛算法用来根据交通量概率分布估计路径路段交通量的统计特征。在一个中等规模路网上对提案模型进行了验证,结果表明:模型可以有效地评估出路径选择行为以及通行能力不确定性等因素对交通量波动的影响。The stochastic nature of traffic flow in stochastic user equilibrium networks was investigated.Based on the random utility theory,a stochastic traffic assignment model that can reflect the probability distribution of traffic flow was constructed using Baye＇s theorem.Driver＇s route choice behavior and the uncertainty in road capacity were taken into account in the model as the sources of fluctuation in traffic flow.A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was also developed in order to estimate the characteristics of traffic flows from the probability distribution.The proposed model was tested on a medium-sized network.Results show that the model can be used to evaluate the effects of route choice behavior and uncertainty in road capacity on the fluctuations in traffic flows.

关 键 词：交通运输系统工程 随机用户均衡 交通量概率分布 贝叶斯定理 随机效用理论 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]