中国碳排放福利绩效分析与预测  

Analysis and Prediction on Well being Performance of Carbon Emissions in China

作　　者：彭鹃[1] 肖伟[1] 魏庆琦[1] 雷晓玲 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学管理学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆市科学技术研究院,重庆401123

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2015年第22期234-238,252,共6页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"碳排放交易支撑技术研究与示范"(2012BAC20B12);国家社会科学基金项目"基于有限理性出行行为引导下的城市低碳交通体系治理研究"(13CGL151);重庆市科技攻关计划项目"重庆市典型行业碳排放交易支撑技术研发与应用"(cstc2012gg B90001)

摘　　要：在构建我国碳排放福利绩效指标的基础上,测算2000—2010年间我国碳排放福利绩效,通过LMDI因素分解法探讨影响中国碳排放福利绩效变化的主要因素,最后采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对中国短期碳排放福利绩效进行预测。结果表明,(1)中国碳排放福利绩效呈逐年下降趋势;(2)驱动中国碳排放福利绩效的主要因素是能源排放比率,所有年份的可持续发展效应小于0,表现出抑制作用;(3)到2015年中国碳排放福利绩效预测值为0.062,减排形势严峻。Based on the construction of well being performance index of carbon emission, the paper estimates Chinese carbon emissions performance over the period of 2000 -2010, then analyzes the influence factors of carbon emissions performance by using LMDI decomposition model. Finally this paper utilizes GM （ 1, 1 ） model to predict short - term wellbeing performance in China. The result indicates： （ 1 ） Chinese carbon well being performance is declining; （2） Energy emission ratio is the main factor of driving Chinese carbon emissions well being performance, but sustainable development effect is less than zero, which shows that the effect restrains the increase of wellbeing performance ; （3） The predictive value of Chinese carbon emissions welfare performance is 0. 062 by 2015, and the situation of emission reduction will be very grim.

关 键 词：碳排放福利绩效 因素分解 LMDI 预测 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]