基于ADL模型的贵州省高等教育与经济增长关系的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Relationship Between Higher Education and Economic Growth of Guizhou Province Based on ADL Model

作　　者：吴兴玲[1] 田应福[1] 金良琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州民族大学理学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2015年第23期103-109,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：贵州省高等教育与经济增长关系的实证分析(黔科合J字LKM[2012]20号)

摘　　要：利用贵州省1978-2010年数据对高等教育发展水平与经济增长之间的关系进行协整分析和Granger因果关系检验,实证研究表明二者之间存在协整关系,即贵州省高等教育发展水平与经济增长之间存在长期的动态均衡关系,在10%的显著水平下,二者存在双向的Granger因果关系,说明贵州省高等教育的发展与经济增长相互促进.为研究二者之间的具体传导机制,建立了ECM模型和ADL模型,结果也印证Granger因果分析,但贵州省高等教育对经济增长的促进力度是比较薄弱的,需要加强改进.结果可以为政府部门对教育经济的决策提供科学依据及参考.This paper makes cointegration analysis and Granger causality test about higher education and economic growth based on the thirty-three years data （1978-2010） of Guizhou province. Empirical results show that there is cointegration relationship between the above two factors, which means there is a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship between higher education and economic growth of Guizhou province. And there are bidirectional Granger causality under the 10% significance level, it illustrates the development of higher education and economic growth to promote each other. By studying the transmitting mechanism between higher education and economic growth of guizhou province, two models, termed as ECM and ADL respectively, are constructed. The empirical result conforms to the Granger＇s causality analysis. However, the present higher education of guizhou province contributes few to the economic growth of guizhou province. Many measures should be taken to strengthen the higher education of guizhou province.The results can provide scientific ground and some relevant suggestions for the government department to make policy about education and economic.

关 键 词：高等教育 经济增长 协整 GRANGER因果 ADL模型 . 

分 类 号：G649.2[文化科学—高等教育学] F124[文化科学—教育学]