基于应急期权的供应链鲁棒订货设计  

Robust Ordering for the Supply Chain using Emergency Options

作　　者：李彬[1] 季建华[2] 王文利[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国建设银行博士后科研工作站,北京100032 [2]上海交通大学中美物流研究院,上海200030 [3]太原科技大学经济与管理学院,太原030024

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2015年第6期897-903,共7页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70732003;71402112);国家社会科学基金资助项目(12CGL042);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20100470695)

摘　　要：买方企业可以通过对单源采购引入应急期权来应对供应不确定性风险,该种模式能够将单源采购的低成本优势和期权的高可靠性优势有效结合。建立了该种模式下的订货模型,求解最优的订货策略和期权策略,并与单纯购买期权模式进行比较。最后,进行了鲁棒敏感性分析。结果表明:无论购买应急期权与否,买方企业都应从传统供应商处订货,应急期权策略不应单独使用;随着传统供应商供应可靠性离散程度不断提高,买方企业的期权购买量应不断增加,向传统供应商提出的订货量则应不断降低;对于供应可靠性的波动,买方企业收益能够稳定地维持在较高水平,该种订货策略具有较高的鲁棒性。A firm can cope with supply uncertainty risk by using emergency options together with single sourcing.This mode combines the low cost of single sourcing and the high reliability of options.We build a model to determine the optimal order strategy and option strategy,and compare the mode with the single option mode.We analyze the robustness of the model using sensitivity analysis.The study shows whether to purchase emergency option or not,the buying firm should first order from the traditional supplier,and emergency option strategy should not be used singly to cope with disruptions;as the dispersion degree of supply reliability of the traditional supplier increases,so does the optimal option quantity while the optimal order quantity from the traditional supplier decreases;for the fluctuation of supply reliability,the profit of the buying firm can be stably maintained at a high level,that is to say,the robustness of this strategy is high.

关 键 词：应急期权 鲁棒性 供应可靠性 订货设计 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]