“中等教育陷阱”?——出口扩张、就业增长与个体教育决策  

"Middle-education Trap" ? Export Expansion,Employment Growth and the Individual Decision of Education Investment

作　　者：张川川[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,100081

出　　处：《经济研究》2015年第12期115-127,157,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(14ZDB120);国家自然科学基金(71503282);北京市社会科学基金(14JDGB047)的资助

摘　　要：利用出口扩张引致的就业需求冲击和采用工具变量方法,本文从经验上分析了非农就业增长对个体教育投资的影响。研究发现,出口引致的就业增长导致适龄入学人口进入高中和大学的概率显著下降。非农就业人口占劳动年龄人口的比重增加1个百分点,导致16-18岁初中毕业生进入高中和19-21岁高中毕业生进入大学学习的概率分别下降0.17%和0.26%。给定其他条件不变,这意味着1990-2005年间由出口扩张引致的就业增长使高中和大学入学率分别减少了5.4和8.6个百分点。分性别和城乡的考察显示:相对于女性,男性进入高中和大学的概率有更大幅度的下降;农村青年进入高中和大学学习的概率都随着就业增长出现了显著下降,城镇青年进入大学学习的概率有显著下降,但进入高中的概率有显著上升。This paper examines the effects of non-agricultural employment growth on education investment decision at the individual level. Empirical results show that employment opportunities due to export significantly decrease the enrollment rates of high school and college. A one percentage increase in the share of non-agricultural workers of the total labor force decreases high school enrollment among youth aged from 16--18 by 0.17% , and decreases college enrollment among youth aged from 19--21 by O. 26%. Holding other factors constant, these estimates imply that the increase of non-agricultural employment due to export between 1990--2005 decreases the enrollment rates of high school and college by 5.4 and 8.6 percentage points, respectively. There are also substantial differences in the educational effects of employment growth by gender and by hukou status. Comparing to women, the decline of education investment is larger for men. While the enrolment rates of high school and college are both negatively affected by the employment growth for rural students, only the college enrollment is negatively affected by the employment growth for urban students. In contrast, arrival of jobs induced by export increases the high school enrollment of urban students.

关 键 词：出口扩张 就业增长 教育投资决策 

分 类 号：G40-05[文化科学—教育学原理] F249.2[文化科学—教育学]