一种MRO产业混沌现象探析  

A MRO industry chaos phenomenon analysis

作　　者：孙林[1] 张利[2] 裴超杰 王阿杰[2] 李金宴 周扬[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京财贸职业学院信息物流系物流教研室,北京101101 [2]北京财贸职业学院信息物流系,北京101101 [3]北京财贸职业学院金融系,北京101101

出　　处：《北京财贸职业学院学报》2016年第1期41-45,共5页Journal of Beijing College of Finance and Commerce

基　　金：北京财贸职业学院教务处《连锁物流数据分析》研学结合课题2014.9

摘　　要：流通在社会再生产过程中起到衔接作用,市场经济发展越快,流通越显其在MRO企业中的重要性,这就对MRO企业的生产模式和管理方式提出新的要求。本文利用混沌原理,对MRO企业在单次流通链的各个环节,在需求不确定情况下所导致供应商选择困难,配送无法及时响应,导致整个流通链条受到阻滞或工作效率下降等现象,通过建立"牛鞭效应"模型及混沌吸引子模型分析了流通链条混沌现象、产生不确定性的原因及提出相应控制策略。circulation play a bridging role in the process of social reproduction, the faster the development of market economy, circulation has become its MRO in enterprise, the importance of this is the production mode and management mode of MRO enterprises put forward new requirements. This paper, by using chaos theory, the circulation of MR0 business in a single chain of each link, under the condition of demand uncertainty in the supplier selection difficulties, distribution does not response in time, cause the entire circulation chain blockage or work efficiency drops wait for a phenomenon, through the establishment of the ＂bullwhip effect＂ model and the chaos attractor model analyzes the circulation chain phenomenon, causes of uncertainty, and put forward the corresponding control strategy.

关 键 词：流通经济 混沌现象 “牛鞭效应”模型 混沌吸引子 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]