变结构协整理论在电力中长期负荷预测中的应用  

Long-term load forecasting in Liaoning electric power based on variable structure cointegration theory

作　　者：侯玉琤[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网辽宁省电力有限公司电力经济技术研究院,沈阳110010

出　　处：《云南电力技术》2015年第6期91-94,共4页Yunnan Electric Power

摘　　要：采用基于变结构协整理论建立中长期负荷预测模型,并通过GMDH算法确定突变点,对2015-2020年辽宁省用电量进行预测,结果显示该预测方法预测精度较高。Long-term load forecasting is always the basis of electric power system planning. In recent years, with social industrial restructure, Liaoning＇s economic growth has slowed down significantly. The traditional load forecasting method has the problem of low forecast precision. This paper adopts variable structure cointegration theory to establish long-term load forecasting model to forecast the electricity consumption in Liaoning during 2015-2020, Using GMDH algorithm to determine the mutation point. The results show that the forecasting method above take high precision.

关 键 词：负荷预测 中长期 GMDH 变结构 协整理论 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]