基于环境承载力的适度人口规模研究——以北海市为例  

Study of a Moderate Population Scale Based on Environmental Carrying Capacity—— Taking Beihai City as an Example

作　　者：薛英岚 吴昊[1] 吴舜泽[2] 吴悦颖[2] 曾维华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [2]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2016年第1期1-6,共6页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2012ZX07102)基金资助

摘　　要：以北海市为例,以环境承载力的几个主要分量作为人口规模的限制因子,分别计算各限制因子约束下的适度人口规模,根据木桶原理,取最小值作为环境承载力约束下的城市适度人口规模。结果表明,能源和大气环境、水资源和土地资源承载力均不会限制人口规模;在不排海情景下,水环境容量明显不足,在排海情景下,COD和NH_3^-N的环境容量对应的适度人口分别为133.05万人和153.72万人,仍无法满足北海市水环境功能要求。北海市的适度人口规模取决于水环境容量,具体在130~150万之间。In this paper, Beihai City of Guangxi province is taken as an example and several main components of environmental carrying capacity are selected as limiting factors of population scale. Moderate population scale under each limiting constraint is calculated respectively and the minimum is taken as the urban moderate population scale according to the barrel theory. The results show that carrying capacities of energy, atmospheric environment, water resource and land resource do not limit the population size. Under the precondition that urban sewage is not discharged into sea, water environment capacity is obviously insufficient, while if urban sewage is discharged into sea, the optimum population sizes corresponding to the environmental capacities of COD and NH_3-N are 31.3305 and 1.5372 million respectively, but the functional requirements of the water environment of Beihai City is still not satisfied. Therefore, the optimum population size of Beihai City depends on the water environmental capacity, specifically between 1.3 and 1.5 million.

关 键 词：环境承载力 适度人口规模 木桶原理 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]