基于Census X12和ARIMA模型的香菇价格波动特征分析--以山东省为例  

Fluctuation and Management of Shiitake Mushroom Price in China: Take Shandong Province as an Example

作　　者：李敏[1] 胡继连[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《中国食用菌》2016年第2期71-76,共6页Edible Fungi of China

基　　金：山东省现代农业产业技术体系食用菌产业经济岗位专家项目(SDAIT-07-011-11)

摘　　要：香菇（Lentinus edodes）是我国目前产量最高的食用菌品种，其价格波动关系到香菇生产者的收入水平和食用菌产业的发展。根据中国食用菌协会、山东省食用菌协会、中国食用菌商务网等对山东省主要蔬菜批发市场食用菌价格的统计数据，利用CensusX12季节调整法和H—P滤波法对2010年5月～2015年6月的香菇价格波动进行了分析。发现夏秋两季香菇价格较高，冬春两季价格略低，且长期来看香菇价格呈增长趋势。随后运用ARIMA模型对2015年7月～12月的香菇价格进行了预测，结果显示2015年下半年我国香菇价格将继续保持增长趋势。最后提出可以通过建立和完善价格信息平台，推行价格保险制度，研发低成本温度控制技术和设备，提高香菇散养户的组织化程度等措施稳定香菇的市场价格，促进散养户增收等相关对策建议。Currently, annual Shiitake （Lentinus edodes） output is the highest among all the species in edible mushroom industry. Fluctuation of Shiitake price has an impact on the welfare of Shiitake growers, as well as the development of edible mushroom industry. Based on price data of major vegetables wholesale markets in Shandong province documented by China Edible Fungi Association, Edible Fungi Association of Shandong Province and Mushroommarket.net, fluctuations of Shiitake price have been analyzed using methods of Census X12 seasonal adjustment and Hodrick-Prescott Filter as of the time period from May 2010 to June 2015. It was concluded that Shiitake prices in summer and autumn are higher than that of winter and spring, and the long-term trend of Shiitake price is increasing. In order to better guide the production behavior of mushroom growers, and promote advancement of the industry, price forecast of July to December 2015 was performed employing ARIMA model, model results showed that Shiitake price will keep increasing during the second half of 2015. Finally, suggestions regarding sta- bilizing Shiitake price and increasing mushroom growers＂ income were proposed, the suggestions include to build and improve Shiitake price information platform, implement price insurance, promote the research and development of low cost temperature control technique and equipment, improve organizational degree of Shiitake mushroom growers.

关 键 词：香菇 价格波动 CENSUS X12季节调整 H—P滤波 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.7