基于组合预测模型的广州市物流需求量预测  

作　　者：韩正涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东建设职业技术学院,广东广州510440

出　　处：《对外经贸》2016年第4期127-129,共3页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

摘　　要：选取2004—2014年广州市物流需求量数据,分别建立三次指数平滑预测模型和回归分析预测模型,加权组合后构建组合预测模型,并对广州市"十三五"规划期末2020年物流需求量进行预测,结果表明:货运量将大幅增长,超过15亿吨。提出以下建议:通过提高物流技术、增加物流基础设施投入、发展特色物流园区等多种举措推动广州市物流业持续健康有序发展。Based on 2004 -2014 Guangzhou logistics demand data respectively established tri-exponential smoothing forecasting model and regression analysis prediction model, weighted combination to construct prediction forecast model, and effectively predicted the logistics demand quantity in 2020 at the end of 13th Five - Year Plan. The analysis results show that the combi- nation forecasting model can further reduce the prediction error of single prediction model and improve the prediction accuracy, to provide ideas for the sustainable development of the logistics industry in Guangzhou.

关 键 词：三次指数平滑 回归分析 组合模型 物流需求量 

分 类 号：G423.06[文化科学—课程与教学论]