基于情景分析和专利地图的企业技术预见模式  

Enterprise Technology Foresight Model Based on Scenario Analysis and Patent Map

作　　者：陈旭[1] 施国良[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,南京211100

出　　处：《情报杂志》2016年第5期102-107,132,共7页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]技术创新是企业提升竞争力的重要手段,关键技术选择是制定技术创新策略的重要环节。企业通过技术预见过程对未来的市场需求和技术发展进行系统性预测,从而筛选出合适的关键技术可以提高技术创新成功率。本文的目的是构建以企业为主体的技术预见模式。[方法/过程]基于企业关键技术选择的特性,结合情景分析法和专利地图法构建企业技术预见模式,包含三个主要模块:市场需求分析、专利地图技术分析及模拟评价筛选。以"美菱公司"为例进行模式应用,验证该模式的科学性和可行性。[结果/结论]基于情景分析和专利地图的企业技术预见模式从市场需求、外部技术发展、自身研发能力三个方面综合进行关键技术的选择,有助于提升技术预见的系统性、科学性、合理性,并且对企业而言可实施性较强。[Purpose / Significance] Technology innovation is an important means to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises,and critical technology selection is an important step in developing technology innovation strategy. Via technology foresight,enterprises can carry out systemic forecast of market demand and technical development in the future,and then select critical technology to improve their technological innovation efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to construct an enterprise technology foresight model. [Method / Process] Based on the characteristics of critical technology selection,and combined scenario analysis with patent map,a technology foresight model was set up,which contains three modules of market demand analysis,patent map analysis and simulated evaluation selection. An application case of ＂ M ei Ling company ＂ was then used to verify the model. [Result / Conclusion] The model proposed enables enterprises to select critical technology from three aspects of market demand,external technology development and RD capabilities,and it leads to a more systematic,scientific and reasonable technology foresight. For enterprises,the model is very practical for its high implementation feasibility.

关 键 词：技术预见 关键技术选择 情景分析 专利地图 

分 类 号：F273.1[经济管理—企业管理]