基于时间序列分解法对原料乳质量安全预测的探究  

Study on the Prediction of Quality and Safety for Raw Milk Based on Time-series Decomposition

作　　者：董笑[1] 白宝光[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学管理学院,呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古工业大学国际商学院,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《食品工业》2016年第5期188-191,共4页The Food Industry

基　　金：内蒙古自治区应用技术研发资金计划项目"乳制品供应链控制区质量安全管理关键技术研究与应用"(20120426);内蒙古自治区自然科学基金项目"基于博弈分析的乳制品质量安全规制研究"(2013MS1013)

摘　　要：原料乳是决定乳制品质量优劣的决定性因素,只有原料乳的质量有保障,乳制品的质量才能更加安全。为了监测原料乳的质量安全,选取体细胞数、细菌数、乳蛋白含量和乳脂含量4个影响因素作为预测原料乳质量安全的应用指标,并收集了近5年的历史数据,采用时间序列分解法,利用EViews软件做出了分析与预测。结果显示,原料乳预测值与实际值的误差在允许的范围内,预测值是可行的。Raw milk is the decisive factor of the quality of dairy products. Only the quality of raw milk is guaranteed, the quality of dairy products can be more secure. In order to monitor the quality safety of raw milk, select the somatic cell count, the bacterial counts, milk protein content and milk fat content of four factors as the application index to predict the quality safety of raw milk, and collect nearly five years of historical data. By applying the time-series decomposition method to make analysis and forecast with EViews software. The result shows that error is in the allowable range, whichis between predicted value and actual value of raw milk. The predicted value is feasible.

关 键 词：原料乳 质量安全 时间序列 预测 

分 类 号：TS252.7[轻工技术与工程—农产品加工及贮藏工程]