民用飞机运行风险评估方法  

Operation Risk Assessment Method of Civil Aircraft

作　　者：郭媛媛[1] 李龙彪[1] 胡宇群[1] 孙有朝[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016

出　　处：《航空工程进展》2016年第2期253-258,共6页Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合资助项目(U1333119);国防基础科研计划项目(JCKY2013605B002);工信部民机专项(MJ-F-2011-33);国防科工局技术基础科研项目(Z052013B003);江苏省自然科学青年基金(BK20140813)

摘　　要：对民用飞机进行风险评估是十分必要的,为了降低民用飞机的运行风险,通过分析民用飞机运行风险研究现状,对于单机,给出故障模式影响分析方法(FMEA)和故障树分析方法(FTA)相结合的单机风险评估方法;对于机队,首先,通过维修计划,利用民用飞机历史运行数据估算风险暴露次数;然后,在浴盆曲线的偶然失效期和耗损失效期分别建立风险计算模型和未纠正机队风险分析方法,并通过实际算例,获得机队风险变化趋势及面临的风险值。对上述方法进行分析归纳,给出了三种降低运行风险的改进方向,有效降低了民用飞机的运行风险。It is very necessary to carry out the risk analysis of civil aircraft in order to reduce the operational risk of civil aircraft.The research status of risk assessment method is analyzed for civil aircraft operating.The method of probabilistic risk assessment in aircraft is presented based on the failure mode effect analysis（FMEA）and fault tree analysis（FTA）.Three type methods are given to calculate the fleet risk.Firstly,the exposed time of fleet is developed by maintenance plan and historical data.Secondly,the fleet risk model and uncorrected fleet risk assessment method with one case is established at random failures period and at wear-out period.The fleet risk trends,influencing factors as well as risk value which may occur are given.Through summarization of these methods,the suitable operation risk methods for civil aircraft and fleet are established in variable states over the remaining life of the fleet.Through these methods,the risk of civil aircraft can be reduced effectively during operation.

关 键 词：民用飞机 概率风险评估 故障树 威布尔分布 未纠正机队风险 

分 类 号：V328.5[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]