城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型研究  

STUDY ON DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL OF URBAN DISASTER EMERGENCY EQUIPMENT

作　　者：黄玉钏[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家安全生产监督管理总局通信信息中心,北京100013

出　　处：《工业建筑》2016年第6期37-39,148,共4页Industrial Construction

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAK14B03)

摘　　要：目前,我国城镇化进程不断加快,城镇的防灾减灾问题越来越受到社会的重视,应急装备需求也日益增强。如何建立科学有效的应急装备需求预测模型,对防治城镇灾害具有重要的意义。基于概率论的方法研究了城镇灾害应急装备需求预测模型,并讨论了在不同环境因子下,应急装备需求量的计算。利用仿真软件MATLAB对应急装备需求进行了计算仿真。仿真结果表明:该需求模型可以较好地对城镇灾害应急装备需求进行预测。At present,Chinese urbanization process is accelerating,the problem of urban disaster prevention and reduction is drawing more and more attention to the society,and emergency equipment needs are growing. How to establish a scientific and effective forecasting model for emergency equipment demand has important significance for the prevention and control of urban disasters. This paper studied the forecasting model of urban disaster emergency equipment demand based on the theory of probability,and discussed the calculation of the demand of emergency equipment under different environmental factors. Using simulation software MATLAB,the demand of emergency equipment was calculated and simulated. The simulation results showed that the model could predict the demand of urban disaster emergency equipment.

关 键 词：城镇灾害 应急装备 需求预测 随机过程 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]